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What happens to the Canadian real estate market if interest rates stay high?

In this week’s installment of The Financial Zown we will examine what the impact, if any, there will be to the Canadian housing market. It's important to note that the real estate market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, government policies, and market sentiment. While high interest rates can have significant implications, other factors can also shape the overall dynamics of the Canadian real estate market. Let dive into them.
The most obvious impact is decreased affordability. Higher interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs for homebuyers. This means that mortgage payments become more expensive, reducing the purchasing power of potential buyers. As a result, housing affordability may decline, and demand for homes could decrease.
The next thing to fall will be prices. Although history has taught us that sellers will hold out as long as they can before dropping the price of their home, but we know they can wait forever. We know that when interest rates are high, the cost of borrowing increases, which can dampen demand in the real estate market. As demand begins, sellers will be compelled to produce listing prices to attract buyers, resulting in slower price growth or even price declines.
The third impact to higher interest rates is decreased sales activity. Although home prices will stabilize or even decrease higher interest rates can discourage homebuyers from entering the market or upgrading to more expensive listings. This decrease in demand can lead to reduced sales activity, as potential buyers may delay their purchasing decisions or opt for more affordable alternatives.
A combination of the first three impacts leads to increased rental demand. Higher interest rates and reduced affordability will push many prospective buyers out of the housing market altogether or delete their home purchase plans. This could increase demand for rental properties as people choose to rent instead of buying. Rental prices may rise as a result, benefiting landlords. It is important to note that increased interest rates also impact most landlords.
The last major impact is on construction and development of new properties. If high interest rates persist, it may affect the construction and development sector. Developers may face higher borrowing costs, which could lead to a slowdown in new housing projects. This could contribute to a reduced housing supply over time, potentially putting upward pressure on prices in the long run. In countries like Canada, where there is a housing shortage, this impact should not be dismissed as minor.
In conclusion, If interest rates in Canada remain high, the Canadian real estate market is likely to experience significant challenges and adjustments. High interest rates typically result in increased borrowing costs for potential homebuyers, leading to a decline in demand for residential properties. As a consequence, home prices may experience downward pressure, making it more challenging for homeowners to sell their properties at desirable prices. Moreover, high interest rates can deter real estate investors from entering the market, further exacerbating the slowdown in activity. The rental market might also see a surge in demand as potential buyers opt for renting instead of purchasing properties due to the higher cost of borrowing. Overall, the Canadian real estate market would likely undergo a period of moderation and adjustment until interest rates start to normalize, potentially impacting both homeowners and property investors alike.
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